Mortality estimates for years up to 2005 are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics death registration data. Data from 2006 onwards were provided by the Australian Coordinating Registry, Cause of Death Unit Record File; the data for the most 2 recent years are preliminary (SAPHaRI, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health)
Only NSW residents are included. Deaths were classified using ICD-10 from 1997 onwards. Rates were age-adjusted using the Australian population as at 30 June 2001.
Counts of deaths for the latest year of data include an estimate of the number of deaths occurring in that year but registered in the next year.
The projections are extrapolations of age specific rates for each sex using Poisson regression models.
Projections were calculated using estimated populations based on Australian Bureau of Statistics Estimated Resident Populations and projections produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry, and Environment (DPIE). See methods tab for more detail.
* Projected trends.
LL/UL 95%CI = lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the point estimate.
Population estimates as at 30 June were used for calendar years, while estimates as at 31 December were used for financial years.
Age- and sex-specific estimated resident populations (ERPs) for NSW Statistical Areas (Levels 1 and 2) (SA1 and SA2) at 30 June were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for use with calendar year data. Linear temporal interpolation was used to derive 31 December age- and sex-specific population estimates for use with financial year data. Populations of NSW Local Health Districts (LHDs) were derived by aggregating the appropriate SA1-level ERPs based on an SA1 to LHD concordance mapping.
Population estimates match the year of health data. For example, the rate of NSW residents hospitalised in, for example, 2017-18 is calculated using the number of hospitalisations in 2017-18 and the estimate of residential population in NSW in the 2017-18 financial year. Further, the death rate of NSW residents in, for example, 2017 is calculated using the number of deaths in 2017 and the estimate of residential population in NSW in the 2017 calendar year.
The 2001 Australian standard population was used for age-adjustment or standardisation of rates. For this report, the Australian estimated residential population (persons) as at 30 June 2001 was used as the standard population. The same population was used for males and females to allow valid comparison of age-standardised rates between the sexes.This standard population is determined by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and is changed every 20 years.
Age-adjustment of rates used direct age-standardisation. This method adjusts for effects of differences in the age composition of populations across time or geographic regions. The directly age-standardised rate is the weighted sum of age-specific (five-year age group) rates, where the weighting factor is the corresponding age-specific standard population. Please refer to the HealthStats PLUS Methods paper on "Age standardisation".
The projections have been produced by the NSW Department of Planning and Environment (DPE). The projections result from assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and incorporate information from DPE, the ABS, the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Border Control and the NSW Ministry of Health. The projections used in HealthStats NSW are based on the latest estimated resident population as published by the ABS linearly interpolated to the first projection year in the DPE estimates following this time point.
The inter-census year projections to 2036 have been produced by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence by interpolating the census-year (2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036) projections provided by Department of Planning and Environment. These projections have been used to calculate rates in indicators showing projected deaths and hospitalisations in NSW.
The year-to-year projections of population to 2036 by 5-year age group for the whole New South Wales and Local Health Districts are available from HealthStats NSW. Population projections for LGAs in NSW are also available for the following age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65 years and over, for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036.
NSW population, household and dwelling projections. NSW Department of Planning and Environment. http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-Projections
Projections of numbers and rates of deaths, hospitalisations or incidence are based on the assumption that past trends will continue into the future. Projections are helpful in high level planning and resource allocation, however the reliability of the projected estimates decreases over time from the year in which the forecasts are based.
The base data used for hospitalisations was from 1st July 2001 onwards. For deaths data, last 20 years were used as the base data for predictions. In all cases, it was assumed that current trends will continue. No allowance was made for the impact of future injury prevention programs or injury treatment regimens.
For each sex and age group combination, the number of future events (deaths, hospitalisations or cases) was estimated by fitting a generalised linear model with events as a linear function of year. A Poisson distribution was assumed for the events. The model was fitted using a log link function and the log of the estimated residential population as an offset variable, using the Genmod procedure in SAS Enterprise Guide 7.15 (SAS Institute 2017). The projected counts for each age group were used to calculate projected age-standardised rates, and combined to calculate total counts for males, females and persons.
In HealthStats NSW, the total population used when calculating age-standardised rates are the Estimated Resident Populations produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and projections produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE).
The projectied population estimates result from assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and incorporate information from DPIE, the ABS, the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Border Control and the NSW Ministry of Health. The projectied population estimates used in HealthStats NSW are based on the latest Estimated Resident Population as published by the ABS linearly interpolated to the first projection year in the DPIE estimates following this time point. Population estimates 2018 onwards incorporate DPIE projections.
NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population Projections. https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Population-projections/Projections
SAS Institute. SAS Enterprise Guide version 7.15. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, 2017. https://www.sas.com/en_au/software/enterprise-guide.html
In order to complete a death registration in Australia, the death must be certified by either a doctor using the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death, or by a coroner. Natural causes are predominantly certified by doctors, whereas External and Unknown causes or unaccompanied deaths are usually certified by a Coroner. Approximately 85-90% of deaths each year are certified by a doctor and the remainder is reported to a Coroner. The death is registered in the state in which the death occurred, rather than the state in which the person resides. The Australian Cause of Death Statistics System is outlined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/47E19CA15036B04BCA2577570014668B?opendocument.
The ABS have implemented a revision process for Coroner certified deaths. Data are deemed preliminary when published for the first time, revised when published the following year and final when published two years after initial publication. This revision process, and the impact on specific causes are described at http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3303.0Explanatory%20Notes12015?OpenDocument .
The ABS publishes two publications every year: Deaths, Australia (Catalogue Number 3302.0) and Causes of death, Australia (Catalogue Number 3303.0) at the end of September, nine months after the end of the concerned year.
The Australian Coordinating Registry (ACR) is an agency appointed coordinate access to coded cause of death unit record data on behalf of the Registrars of Births Deaths and Marriages in each state or territory as well as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and National Coronial Information System. The coordinating registry undertakes the coordination and management of the designated activity. The underlying legal responsibility is retained by the collective Registrars.
The ACR provides the NSW Ministry of Health with a national cause of death unit record file to allow a detailed analysis of deaths data (sixteen to seventeen months after the end of the concerned year).
Prior to 2008, the NSW Ministry of Health obtained data on causes of death of all NSW residents from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This Unit Record File (URF) is required to enable the Ministry to report on causes of death in NSW by sub-state geographies (eg by Local Health District or Local Government Area) and by other dimensions and sub-populations such as remoteness categories and socioeconomic groups. Causes of death data are also used throughout the NSW public health system for a variety of health system planning, reporting, research and evaluation needs.
In 2013, the Australian Coordinating Registry (ACR) based at the Queensland government Department of Justice and Attorney-General provided the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence (CEE) at the NSW Ministry of Health with a URF of all deaths registered in NSW between 2006 and 2011 and which included the cause of death (COD). This file will be referred to as the ACR CODURF. The coding of the causes of death is still undertaken by the ABS but the process for obtaining the data is conducted by the ACR.
The CEE carried out linkage of the ACR CODURF with records from the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages (RBDM) death registration file for 2006-2013. The linkage relates the cause of death information from the ACR records to the death registration records which contain addresses of those who died in NSW. This allowed death records to be geocoded so that geographic boundaries such as Local Health Districts, Medicare Locals and Local Government Areas could be added to them. Statistical weights were developed using an imputation process to estimate the number of missing records of NSW residents who died interstate, which were not available for 2007 onwards, and deaths which occurred in the latest year but were registered in the following year. Estimates for the numbers of deaths for 2007 onwards include counts of interstate and late death registrations based on these imputations.
Death count by year of registration and by year of occurrence
There is usually an interval between the occurrence and registration of a death which is related to the time of year or whether a death is referred to a Coroner. The registration of deaths which occur in November and December are likely to be delayed until the following year, for example, of all deaths in NSW registered in 2013, 6.9% occurred in 2012 or earlier (ABS 3302.0).
Deaths data reported by the ABS for the latest year are based on the year of registration therefore do not include deaths which occurred in that year but where registration was delayed. Deaths data reported in HealthStats NSW are based on the year of occurrence of the death. Estimates of missing deaths for the latest year due to delayed registration (ie due to time of year or Coronial cases) are imputed for each cause and included in the count for the reports in HealthStats NSW. A small percentage of death registrations may be delayed for more than one year. All deaths figures are updated historically (eg in trends) in this report when new data becomes available.
Different population projection data
For the calculation of rates, the NSW Ministry of Health uses population projection estimates from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment. The estimated residential populations which are not projected are the same as those published by the ABS and are currently based on the 2016 Census. See Methods associated with indicators in topics Demography (or Population) for further discussion of population estimates.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Deaths, Australia, latest year. 3302.0. Canberra: ABS, . Available at http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3302.0
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Causes of Deaths, Australia, latest year. 3303.0. Canberra: ABS, . Available at http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3303.0
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Multiple Cause of Deaths, Australia, 1997-2001. 3319.0.55.001. Canberra: ABS, . Available at http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3319.0.55.001
|Description||ICD-9 & ICD-9-CM||ICD-10 & ICD-10-AM||Comments|
|Death from all causes||001 - V82.9||A00 - Z99.9||All records are included for NSW residents only.|
• In 2018, there were 53,456 deaths of residents in NSW. The number of deaths has increased by around 13% in the 10 years since 2009. However, the death rate has decreased by around 12% over this period due to an increasing population.
• The age standardised death rate was 506.4 per 100,000 population in NSW in 2018.
• In 2018 the age-adjusted male death rate was around 46% higher than the female death rate (610.5 compared with 417.0 per 100,000 population respectively). This difference has declined from 52% over the last 10 years since 2009.
• In 2018, there were 294 infant deaths in NSW, which was 2.7 deaths per 1,000 live births. The infant mortality rate in Australia was 3.1 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2018.
Death or mortality statistics are published at regular intervals in most countries and usually show numbers and rates of deaths by sex, age and other variables. A death rate is an estimate of the proportion of the population that dies during a specified period (Last 2001). In this report it is expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000 population (person-years).
The proportion of people in different age groups varies between geographic areas and over time and can therefore influence death rate comparisons within these dimensions. Age-adjustment (also known as age-standardisation) allows for the comparison of death rates across geographic areas and over time after removing the effects of the different age structures in these dimensions.
Refer to the Methods tab for more information.
Death rates from all causes are low in Australia and NSW by international standards. The World Health Organization classifies Australia into an ‘A stratum’, with very low child and adult mortality. Comparisons by country reveal that the probability of dying between 15 and 60 years per 1,000 population (WHO calculated adult mortality rate) spans from around 50 in selected developed countries to just under 500 in some African countries. Australia’s rate was 61 per 1,000 in 2016, which placed it 16th out of 183 reported countries (WHO 2018).
World Health Organization. World health statistics. Geneva: WHO. Available at: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.686?lang=en
Interventions aiming to reduce deaths rates in NSW are embedded in strategies dealing with specific health issues or specific disadvantaged populations.