Australian Bureau of Statistics. Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031, Catalogue number 3238.0. Canberra: ABS, 2019.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian Demographic Statistics, Catalogue number 3101.0. Canberra: ABS, March 2018.
Population estimates as at 30 June each year. Components may not add up to the total exactly and population estimates may not be the same as other publications, due to rounding.The Australian Bureau of Statistics total population and Aboriginal population estimates are based on the 2016 census. See Methods for details.
# Recasted population from 2006 to 2015
* Projected population from 2017 to 2031
Differences between the stucture of the general population and a smaller population sub-group such as Aboriginal peoples (comprising just over 3% of the total poulation in NSW), are best shown by comparing the proportion of each population for each 5-year age group in the form of a population pyramid (see Methods tab on Population pyramids for further detail).
The shape of a pyramid quickly communicates the details of the population. Compared with the non-Aboriginal population of NSW, the Aboriginal population pyramid is more triangular in shape, indicating higher fertility and death rates and shorter life expectancy among Aboriginal peoples in NSW. The Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal trends for each age group show the higher proportion across time for younger age groups in the Aboriginal population up until those aged in their twenties when the proportion of people in each age group is lower in the Aboriginal compared with the non-Aboriginal population, indicative of higher death rates.
Population estimates as at 30 June were used for calendar years, while estimates as at 31 December were used for financial years.
Age- and sex-specific estimated resident populations (ERPs) for NSW Statistical Areas (Levels 1 and 2) (SA1 and SA2) at 30 June were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for use with calendar year data. Linear temporal interpolation was used to derive 31 December age- and sex-specific population estimates for use with financial year data. Populations of NSW Local Health Districts (LHDs) were derived by aggregating the appropriate SA1-level ERPs based on an SA1 to LHD concordance mapping.
Population estimates match the year of health data. For example, the rate of NSW residents hospitalised in, for example, 2017-18 is calculated using the number of hospitalisations in 2017-18 and the estimate of residential population in NSW in the 2017-18 financial year. Further, the death rate of NSW residents in, for example, 2017 is calculated using the number of deaths in 2017 and the estimate of residential population in NSW in the 2017 calendar year.
The 2001 Australian standard population was used for age-adjustment or standardisation of rates. For this report, the Australian estimated residential population (persons) as at 30 June 2001 was used as the standard population. The same population was used for males and females to allow valid comparison of age-standardised rates between the sexes. This standard population is determined by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and is changed every 20 years.
Age-adjustment of rates used direct age-standardisation. This method adjusts for effects of differences in the age composition of populations across time or geographic regions. The directly age-standardised rate is the weighted sum of age-specific (five-year age group) rates, where the weighting factor is the corresponding age-specific standard population. Please refer to the HealthStats PLUS Methods paper on Age standardisation.
The projections have been produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE). The projections result from assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and incorporate information from DPIE, the ABS, the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Border Control and the NSW Ministry of Health. The projections used in HealthStats NSW are based on the latest estimated resident population as published by the ABS linearly interpolated to the first projection year in the DPIE estimates following this time point.
The inter-census year projections to 2036 have been produced by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence by interpolating the census-year (2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036) projections provided by Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. These projections have been used to calculate rates in indicators showing projected deaths and hospitalisations in NSW.
The year-to-year projections of population to 2036 by 5-year age group for the whole of New South Wales and Local Health Districts are available from HealthStats NSW. Population projections for LGAs in NSW are also available for the following age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65 years and over, for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036.
NSW population, household and dwelling projections. NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. Available at: http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-Projections
The five yearly Census of Population and Housing is the primary source of basic population statistics, providing a total count of the population on Census night.
The Census is the primary source of basic population statistics, providing a total count of the population on census night. Population counts can be provided according to place of enumeration or according to place of usual residence. In Australia the key population measure is the estimated resident population (ERP), which is based on the concept of a person’s ‘usual residence’ for a period of 12 months or more within Australia. The ERP in a census year is derived from the census count, with adjustments for estimated undercount and for Australian residents temporarily overseas on census night. Between censuses the ERP is updated using information on birth and death registrations from state and territory Registrars of Births, Deaths and Marriages, and overseas arrivals and departures data from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, as well as Medicare registration changes of address for modelling interstate migration.
Population estimates are referred to as preliminary, revised or final. Preliminary estimates are generally made available five to six months after the reference period. Revised estimates are generally published each September for the financial year ending in the previous year. Final estimates are published for the previous intercensal period after each census.
Preliminary estimates can be obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics publication: Regional population growth, Australia, published annually in March and containing estimates for the previous year (ABS 3218.0).
Estimated resident populations (i.e. data to 30 June 2015) for the new Local Government Areas (LGAs) established in 2016 in NSW were calculated by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health, based on ABS data from historical LGA, Statistical Local Area (SLA), census collection district (CD) or SA1-level ERPs.
The projections for 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036 have been produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment using the cohort component modelling method. The model takes a population broken down by age groups and moves them forward in time using assumptions about when and how many people will die, how many babies women will have at certain ages, and how many people will move into and out of an area. This is the most common method used by demographers. The details of the method, process and assumptions can be found on the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment website.
The year-to-year projections to 2036 have been produced by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health using as data points, the projections produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. These projections have been used to calculate rates in indicators showing projected deaths and hospitalisations in NSW.
The year-to-year projections of population to 2036 by 5-year age group for the whole of New South Wales, Local Health Districts and Primary Health Networks are available in HealthStats NSW. Population projections for LGAs are also available for the following age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65 years and over, for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. Projections by 5-year age group are available for some LGAs from the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment website. Projections of population by sex are not available for Local Government Areas.
The NSW population projections use a top-down approach working down from the state, to region, to local government area (LGA). State and region projections have not been affected by changes to the LGA boundaries. LGA projections for the new boundaries have been created by adding together projections where whole Councils have been amalgamated. Where boundaries have been changed to create new Councils, populations were distributed based on information about housing completions and short-term housing supply forecasts.
The 2016 projections are for new Councils that have been announced. Data for new Councils that are pending will be released when they become official (please see NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, NSW Population Projection User Guide below).
Population data is often presented in a form of a pyramid. A population pyramid consists of two back-to-back bar graphs, one showing the number of males and one showing the number of females in a particular population in five-year age groups.
Population pyramids provide an overall picture of the age and sex structure in a population. Age and sex are important determinants of the health of individuals. Thus, the age and sex structure of a population has a strong effect on patterns of illness and use of health services.
The shape of a pyramid quickly communicates the details of the population. Population pyramids that are triangular (broad at the base and narrow rapidly towards the top) indicate a large number of children and a small number of older people, which implies a high fertility rate, high death rate, and short life expectancy. A more rectangular shape reflects lower death rates, with most of the population living to old age. Migration patterns, for example young adults moving to urban areas and retired people moving to coastal areas, also affect the shape of the population pyramid. Changes in the shape of a population pyramid over time reflect the changing composition of the population, associated with changes in fertility, mortality and migration at each age.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Regional population growth, Australia. 3218.0. Canberra: ABS. Available at: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014. Catalogue no. 3105.0.65.001. Canberra: ABS, 2008. Available at: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/PrimaryMainFeatures/3105.0.65.001?OpenDocument
Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population Projections. Available at: http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-au/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections/data.aspx
Note from the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment website. Available at: https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-projections/NSW-Population-Projections-User-Guide
Estimating the size and composition of the Aboriginal population is difficult for a range of reasons, in particular the incomplete and differential recording of Aboriginality in administrative data collections. Aboriginality is generally under-reported in administrative data collections for reasons such as staff reluctance to ask whether a person is or is not Aboriginal as well as the reluctance of Aboriginal people to identify as Aboriginal in some circumstances. Recording and reporting is usually better in rural and remote regions than in major cities.
The quality of recording of Aboriginality in health administrative datasets in NSW varies and may affect the reported hospitalisation rates. The estimated level of enumeration of Aboriginal people in hospital data (Admitted Patient Data Collection) in NSW was 80% in 2011-12 (AHIW 2013).
The Aboriginal population is relatively young, with a median age of 23 years, compared with 37.8 years for the non-Aboriginal population. As age is closely related to health, care should be taken when comparing information for these two populations, except where rates have been age-standardised.
Standardisation by age allows comparing rates of disease in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations. Comparisons are often limited, however, by very low numbers of Aboriginal persons in age groups of 55 years and older.
For example, in NSW in 2016 the proportion of Aboriginal young persons aged below 20 years was 45.3% while persons aged 55 years and older were 11.5% (estimated as 31,053 persons) of the total Aboriginal population. The corresponding proportions in non-Aboriginal population in NSW in 2016 were 24.1% and 27.8% (estimated as 2,085,383 persons). In NSW in 2016, there were estimated 3,697 Aboriginal persons and 533,543 non-Aboriginal persons aged 75 years and older.
These differences in age distribution result in a situation where chronic diseases of the old age may be relatively underrepresented in the Aboriginal older population and cases of rarer diseases may even be absent, leading to falsely favourable results in Aboriginal people when compared with non-Aboriginal people.
To ensure a substantial number of older people in the Aboriginal population for comparison, the older age groups in both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations are often amalgamated. Amalgamation from age 75 years is used for indicators that compare the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population data, while amalgamation from age 85 years is used for indicators that involve comparisons of the total population.
Amalgamating older ages allows results in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations to be compared, however it is not suitable for analysis of a disease distribution in the total population, because information concerning older ages from 55 to 85 years and over is lost.
NSW and substate total population estimates for 2016, backcasts (pre 2016), and projections (post 2016) were developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Australian Bureau of Statistics. Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031, Catalogue number 3238.0. Canberra: ABS, 2019.).
No substate projections or backcasts are currently available for Aboriginal populations based on the 2016 Cenus. As such, only single year of data can be reported on HealthStats NSW for substate Aboriginal populations.
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Indigenous identification in hospital separations data - Quality report. Cat no IHW 90. Canberra: AIHW, 2013.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031, Catalogue number 3238.0. Canberra: ABS, 2019. Available at https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3238.0
• The estimated residential population of NSW in 2017 was 7,861,068 which was just under one-third of Australia's population. The population of NSW in 2036 is projected to be approximately 9,925,548.
• In 2017 the female population slightly outnumbered the male population (98.2 males per 100 females) and this gap is predicted to remain similar in 2036 (98.4 males per 100 females).
• The proportion of females in the population increases with age. In 2017 females made up 50.4% of the total population but 53.3% of the NSW population aged 65 years or more, and 62.4% of the population aged 85 years or more.
• The NSW population is predominantly urban. In 2016 approximately 75.0% of the NSW population lived in major cities, 18.8% lived in inner regional areas, and 6.2% in outer regional and remote areas.
• In 2017 approximately 3.0% of the total population in NSW were Aboriginal and were relatively younger overall than the non-Aboriginal population. Of the total Aboriginal population in 2017, 11.8% were aged 0-4 years, compared with 6.1% of the non-Aboriginal population, and 0.2% were aged 85 years and over, compared with 2.2% of the non-Aboriginal population.
Demography is the study of populations, especially with reference to size and density, fertility, mortality, growth, age and sex distribution, migration and vital statistics and the interaction of all these with social and economic conditions.
Understanding population trends informs decision-making in planning, allocating and providing a wide variety of services, including population and community health, primary health, specialist and hospital services.
Age and sex are important determinants of the health of individuals. Thus, the age and sex structure of a population has a strong effect on patterns of illness and use of health services.
The age and sex structure will vary among different regions, for reasons such as young adults moving to cities for study or work and older people retiring to coastal areas.
A dictionary of epidemiology. Fifth edition. Oxford reference. http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780195314496.001.0001/acref-9780195314496
NSW Department of Planning and Environment. Demography. http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography
NSW Department of Planning and Environment at http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography
Australian Bureau of Statistics at http://www.abs.gov.au
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare at http://www.aihw.gov.au
healthdirect at http://www.healthdirect.gov.au