Based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident populations (SAPHaRI). Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health.
Population estimates as at 30 June each year. Components may not add up to the total exactly and population estimates may not be the same as other publications, due to rounding.
Australian Bureau of Statistics' population estimates are based on 2016 Census. See Methods for details.
Population estimates as at 30 June were used for calendar years, while estimates as at 31 December were used for financial years.
Age- and sex-specific estimated resident populations (ERPs) for NSW Statistical Areas (Levels 1 and 2) (SA1 and SA2) at 30 June were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for use with calendar year data. Linear temporal interpolation was used to derive 31 December age- and sex-specific population estimates for use with financial year data. Populations of NSW Local Health Districts (LHDs) were derived by aggregating the appropriate SA1-level ERPs based on an SA1 to LHD concordance mapping.
Population estimates match the year of health data. For example, the rate of NSW residents hospitalised in, for example, 2017-18 is calculated using the number of hospitalisations in 2017-18 and the estimate of residential population in NSW in the 2017-18 financial year. Further, the death rate of NSW residents in, for example, 2017 is calculated using the number of deaths in 2017 and the estimate of residential population in NSW in the 2017 calendar year.
The 2001 Australian standard population was used for age-adjustment or standardisation of rates. For this report, the Australian estimated residential population (persons) as at 30 June 2001 was used as the standard population. The same population was used for males and females to allow valid comparison of age-standardised rates between the sexes. This standard population is determined by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and is changed every 20 years.
Age-adjustment of rates used direct age-standardisation. This method adjusts for effects of differences in the age composition of populations across time or geographic regions. The directly age-standardised rate is the weighted sum of age-specific (five-year age group) rates, where the weighting factor is the corresponding age-specific standard population. Please refer to the HealthStats PLUS Methods paper on Age standardisation.
The projections have been produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE). The projections result from assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and incorporate information from DPIE, the ABS, the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Border Control and the NSW Ministry of Health. The projections used in HealthStats NSW are based on the latest estimated resident population as published by the ABS linearly interpolated to the first projection year in the DPIE estimates following this time point.
The inter-census year projections to 2036 have been produced by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence by interpolating the census-year (2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036) projections provided by Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. These projections have been used to calculate rates in indicators showing projected deaths and hospitalisations in NSW.
The year-to-year projections of population to 2036 by 5-year age group for the whole of New South Wales and Local Health Districts are available from HealthStats NSW. Population projections for LGAs in NSW are also available for the following age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65 years and over, for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036.
NSW population, household and dwelling projections. NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. Available at: http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-Projections
The Local Government Area boundaries (LGAs) used in HealthStats NSW are an Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) approximation of officially gazetted LGAs as defined by the NSW Office of Local Government. The 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) edition of LGAs includes the 19 New South Wales councils announced on 12 May 2016 at https://www.strongercouncils.nsw.gov.au/. Based on the 2016 ASGS, there are 130 LGAs in NSW.
LGAs cover incorporated areas of Australia. Incorporated areas are legally designated parts of a State or Territory over which incorporated local governing bodies have responsibility. The major areas of NSW not administered by incorporated bodies include parts of far western NSW and Lord Howe Island. These regions are identified as ‘Unincorporated’ in the ABS Local Government Area structure.
Local Government Area population estimates used in HealthStats NSW
In HealthStats NSW, the total population used for each LGA in age-standardisation calculations is the Estimated Resident Population produced by the ABS and projections produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry, and Environment. As sub-state projections based on the 2016 Census are not yet available, population projections for LGAs (estimated population for 2017 and onwards) are based on Estimated Resident Populations produced by the ABS prior to the 2016 Census.
Methods used to adjust estimates for small areas
The term ‘small area’ refers to a small geographical area and a small population. Data from a small area are characterised by considerable variability. Smoothing is a general term for methods of minimising variability in data. Examples include rounding, moving averages, extending the period of time in which cases are counted or increasing the size of areas considered. In addition, statistical smoothing can be used to adjust raw estimates in small areas by taking into account information from adjacent areas (local or spatial variability) and from the whole state (global or non-spatial variability).
LGAs are the smallest level at which data are analysed in HealthStats NSW. 'Statistical smoothing' methods are used to control for random variability in the small area estimates and result in more conservative estimates for small areas. These methods are described in a paper in the HealthStatsPLUS Methods tab on this website.
The results of the spatial adjustment were used to determine whether the results obtained from individual areas are significantly different from NSW. The level of significance and the direction of difference from the NSW average is shown using plus and minus signs, as follows:
means more than 99.5% of the posterior distribution is above the unadjusted state rate. This indicates that the estimated LGA rate is significantly higher than the state average at the 1% level of significance.
means more than 97.5%, but less than 99.5%, of the posterior distribution is above the unadjusted state rate. This indicates that the estimated LGA rate is significantly higher than the state average at the 5% level of significance.
means that between 2.5 and 97.5% of the distribution is above the unadjusted state rate. This indicates that the LGA rate is not significantly different to the state average.
means less than 2.5% of the posterior distribution is above the unadjusted state rate. This indicates that the LGA rate is significantly lower than the state average at 5% level of significance.
means less than 0.5% of the posterior distribution is above the unadjusted state rate. This indicates that the LGA rate is significantly lower than the state average at the 1% level of significance.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Regional population growth, Australia. Cat no. 3218.0. ABS Canberra, 2019. Accessed 28 February 2020 at https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0
NSW Office of Local Government website at: https://www.olg.nsw.gov.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Local Government Areas. Australian Statistical Geography Standard. Cat no. 1270.0.55.003. ABS Canberra, 2016. Accessed 28 February 2020 at: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1270.0.55.003~July%202016~Main%20Features~Local%20Government%20Areas%20(LGA)~7
NSW Department of Planning, Industry, and Environment website at: https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/
The five yearly Census of Population and Housing is the primary source of basic population statistics, providing a total count of the population on Census night.
The Census is the primary source of basic population statistics, providing a total count of the population on census night. Population counts can be provided according to place of enumeration or according to place of usual residence. In Australia the key population measure is the estimated resident population (ERP), which is based on the concept of a person’s ‘usual residence’ for a period of 12 months or more within Australia. The ERP in a census year is derived from the census count, with adjustments for estimated undercount and for Australian residents temporarily overseas on census night. Between censuses the ERP is updated using information on birth and death registrations from state and territory Registrars of Births, Deaths and Marriages, and overseas arrivals and departures data from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, as well as Medicare registration changes of address for modelling interstate migration.
Population estimates are referred to as preliminary, revised or final. Preliminary estimates are generally made available five to six months after the reference period. Revised estimates are generally published each September for the financial year ending in the previous year. Final estimates are published for the previous intercensal period after each census.
Preliminary estimates can be obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics publication: Regional population growth, Australia, published annually in March and containing estimates for the previous year (ABS 3218.0).
Estimated resident populations (i.e. data to 30 June 2015) for the new Local Government Areas (LGAs) established in 2016 in NSW were calculated by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health, based on ABS data from historical LGA, Statistical Local Area (SLA), census collection district (CD) or SA1-level ERPs.
The projections for 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036 have been produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment using the cohort component modelling method. The model takes a population broken down by age groups and moves them forward in time using assumptions about when and how many people will die, how many babies women will have at certain ages, and how many people will move into and out of an area. This is the most common method used by demographers. The details of the method, process and assumptions can be found on the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment website.
The year-to-year projections to 2036 have been produced by the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health using as data points, the projections produced by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. These projections have been used to calculate rates in indicators showing projected deaths and hospitalisations in NSW.
The year-to-year projections of population to 2036 by 5-year age group for the whole of New South Wales, Local Health Districts and Primary Health Networks are available in HealthStats NSW. Population projections for LGAs are also available for the following age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65 years and over, for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. Projections by 5-year age group are available for some LGAs from the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment website. Projections of population by sex are not available for Local Government Areas.
The NSW population projections use a top-down approach working down from the state, to region, to local government area (LGA). State and region projections have not been affected by changes to the LGA boundaries. LGA projections for the new boundaries have been created by adding together projections where whole Councils have been amalgamated. Where boundaries have been changed to create new Councils, populations were distributed based on information about housing completions and short-term housing supply forecasts.
The 2016 projections are for new Councils that have been announced. Data for new Councils that are pending will be released when they become official (please see NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, NSW Population Projection User Guide below).
Population data is often presented in a form of a pyramid. A population pyramid consists of two back-to-back bar graphs, one showing the number of males and one showing the number of females in a particular population in five-year age groups.
Population pyramids provide an overall picture of the age and sex structure in a population. Age and sex are important determinants of the health of individuals. Thus, the age and sex structure of a population has a strong effect on patterns of illness and use of health services.
The shape of a pyramid quickly communicates the details of the population. Population pyramids that are triangular (broad at the base and narrow rapidly towards the top) indicate a large number of children and a small number of older people, which implies a high fertility rate, high death rate, and short life expectancy. A more rectangular shape reflects lower death rates, with most of the population living to old age. Migration patterns, for example young adults moving to urban areas and retired people moving to coastal areas, also affect the shape of the population pyramid. Changes in the shape of a population pyramid over time reflect the changing composition of the population, associated with changes in fertility, mortality and migration at each age.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Regional population growth, Australia. 3218.0. Canberra: ABS. Available at: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0
Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014. Catalogue no. 3105.0.65.001. Canberra: ABS, 2008. Available at: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/PrimaryMainFeatures/3105.0.65.001?OpenDocument
Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population Projections. Available at: http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-au/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections/data.aspx
Note from the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment website. Available at: https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-projections/NSW-Population-Projections-User-Guide
• The estimated residential population of NSW in 2017 was 7,861,068 which was just under one-third of Australia's population. The population of NSW in 2036 is projected to be approximately 9,925,548.
• In 2017 the female population slightly outnumbered the male population (98.2 males per 100 females) and this gap is predicted to remain similar in 2036 (98.4 males per 100 females).
• The proportion of females in the population increases with age. In 2017 females made up 50.4% of the total population but 53.3% of the NSW population aged 65 years or more, and 62.4% of the population aged 85 years or more.
• The NSW population is predominantly urban. In 2016 approximately 75.0% of the NSW population lived in major cities, 18.8% lived in inner regional areas, and 6.2% in outer regional and remote areas.
• In 2017 approximately 3.0% of the total population in NSW were Aboriginal and were relatively younger overall than the non-Aboriginal population. Of the total Aboriginal population in 2017, 11.8% were aged 0-4 years, compared with 6.1% of the non-Aboriginal population, and 0.2% were aged 85 years and over, compared with 2.2% of the non-Aboriginal population.
Demography is the study of populations, especially with reference to size and density, fertility, mortality, growth, age and sex distribution, migration and vital statistics and the interaction of all these with social and economic conditions.
Understanding population trends informs decision-making in planning, allocating and providing a wide variety of services, including population and community health, primary health, specialist and hospital services.
Age and sex are important determinants of the health of individuals. Thus, the age and sex structure of a population has a strong effect on patterns of illness and use of health services.
The age and sex structure will vary among different regions, for reasons such as young adults moving to cities for study or work and older people retiring to coastal areas.
A dictionary of epidemiology. Fifth edition. Oxford reference. http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780195314496.001.0001/acref-9780195314496
NSW Department of Planning and Environment. Demography. http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography
NSW Department of Planning and Environment at http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography
Australian Bureau of Statistics at http://www.abs.gov.au
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare at http://www.aihw.gov.au
healthdirect at http://www.healthdirect.gov.au